Hydrogen Vehicle Sales Plummet 20%: Is Policy the Missing Link?

2025-02-20 industry

Brussels, Thursday, 20 February 2025.
Hydrogen vehicle sales fell by 20% for the second year in 2024. The European market struggles with growth due to lack of policy support. Time for intervention, perhaps?

Market Reality Check

I’ve been tracking the hydrogen vehicle market closely, and the numbers are telling a sobering story. In California alone, hydrogen vehicle sales plummeted from 3,119 units in 2023 to just 600 in 2024 [3], representing a dramatic -80.763% decline. This trend mirrors the global downturn we’re seeing across the sector.

Industry Giants Face Headwinds

The challenges aren’t limited to sales figures. Just this week, we witnessed a significant industry shake-up when Nikola, once valued higher than GM or Ford, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on February 19, 2025 [5][6]. With only $47 million in cash remaining [5], this former hydrogen vehicle pioneer’s fall from grace highlights the sector’s volatile nature. Meanwhile, even established players like Toyota are pivoting, with their focus increasingly shifting toward hybrid vehicles, though they continue to offer the Mirai hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle in California [2].

Infrastructure and Investment Challenges

I’m seeing major players reassessing their hydrogen strategies. Fortescue is slowing its green hydrogen investments across the US, Europe, and Australia due to market uncertainties [1]. The infrastructure challenge is real - even HYLA, Nikola’s fueling network, faces an uncertain future beyond March 2025 [6]. What’s particularly concerning is that these setbacks are occurring despite some hydrogen projects achieving promising cost metrics below $1/kg [1].

Policy Support: The Missing Catalyst

There’s an interesting development in the US, where an unlikely alliance is forming. Fossil-fuel and green groups are joining forces to advocate for maintaining the clean hydrogen production tax credit [1]. This shows that while the market is struggling, there’s recognition across the industry that policy support could be crucial for revival. In Australia, we’re seeing similar government intervention with a new A$1bn green iron fund, though even this hasn’t prevented some hydrogen projects from being shelved [1].

Bronnen

hydrogen vehicles decline